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India 2047
To provide an idea of what may be, not necessarily of what will be, INDIATODAY invited the Centre for Policy Research, a premier New Delhi-based
think-tank, to conduct an exclusive exercise at crystal ball-gazing, to
map an India of the future. Many of the seeds of change are already there.
And what is projected here is plausible and is certainly within the realm
of possibility.
India, like the world, will over the next half century move from
government for the people to governance by and of the people, with various
elements of civil society becoming actors in a new regime of
self-determination. The nation state will weaken but not disappear and
sovereignty will increasingly come to be shared by more and more players,
national and global.
Satellites, the micro-chip and multinational companies have already
empowered people and undermined the supremacy of the state. New bodies of
global governance and peacekeeping will have been fashioned and, alongside
intermeshing regional groupings, will have created a mosaic of
international relationships that cut across traditional state boundaries.
India will probably have become the world's most populous country,
overtaking China, and will be among the Big Five in terms of political,
economic and technological power. Its per capita ranking will remain
modest but poverty, as we know it, will be a thing of the past in what
will be a more integrated society.
Standing on the crossroads of a millennial opportunity, will India be able
to make a leap -- let alone a great leap -- into the next century? Here is
the big picture.
D E M O G R A P H Y
Alarming Growth

The objective of population stabilisation is unlikely to be realised for
another 100 years.
The different growth rates of different communities, castes and regions
could become a political time bomb.
GOING by World Bank estimates India's population will be 1,579 million in
2047, or a 450 per cent increase within a century. India's demography,
like its development, has yet to make a critical transition. Though the
birth rate has dropped from 42 to 28 per 1,000 population, it is still too
high. Ideally, the replacement level (a couple replaced by two children)
of 21 per 1,000 population should have been reached by at least 2000.
Population stabilisation is now unlikely to be realised for another 100
years.
The world over, rising female literacy has been accompanied by lower birth
rates and enhanced social and economic indices. India has these past 50
years neglected the girl child, whose development is the only way to
demographic salvation. The burden of population growth will consequently
weigh heavier.
The quality of life will be affected. The challenge of providing basic
services like adequate food, clothing, housing and water will be enormous.
For instance, we will need about 400 million tonnes of grain by 2047, or
more than double the current production, on more or less the same arable
area. Productivity must therefore double, which means huge investments in
irrigation and on improved land and water management.
A demographic explosion over the next 50 years will create any number of
political, economic, social and environmental tensions. The different
growth rates of different communities, castes and regions could become a
political time bomb. Tamil Nadu, for instance, is disquieted about losing
some parliamentary seats as a result of a reduction in its population
growth rate and altered national demographic ratios. Giant laggards like
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will gain. Caste differentials, specially in the
Hindi belt, could aggravate rivalries. Above all, the consumption
standards of the poor will be eroded by rising numbers.

This article is taken from INDIA TODAY online.